Over the last couple of weeks I’ve been working with the forex trader data I’m going to be using in my PhD research. I included some of the figures I’d pulled out in one of my recent newsletters, but I thought I’d share some additional stuff here.
I’ve pull the following set of numbers on trades which include USD pairs (no crosses), of which my data contains over 2 million records.
Average Profit: $60.03
Average Pip Profit: 28.20
Average Loss: $105.14
Average Pip Profit: 63.88
Notice there are many more winners than losers. They represent 63% of all trades. These are retail traders, so it just goes to show that you don’t want to get too crazy about looking to trade against the collective.
Notice also that the average loss is about 75% higher than the average profit. That completely offsets the 63% win rate and results in a negative overall expectancy for the group.
It must be noted, however, that that average loss appears to be due to holding on to losers too long rather than risking too much money. Notice how the average loss in pip terms is more than double the average gain. Traders actually had lower pip values on their losing trades than on the winning ones (on average). They just held on too long.
Here is the problem is for most traders. They are quick to take profits and slow to take losses. This is referred to as the Disposition Effect in Behavioral Finance research.
Much more analysis of the data needs to be done, but these results are very interesting nevertheless.