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Deep Posts Reader Questions Answered

Kondratieff Long Wave Theory

I was asked the other day:

What is your take on the Kondratieff Long Wave Theory?  Would you say we are in the Winter phase?

I’ve heard of a lot of different analytic methods and concepts, but I have to say I have never heard of this. But then again, I’m not a trained economist, so I could have just missed out on this one in my education. Having taken a quick look, I now realize it’s basically a theory based on super cycles.

Kondratieff Long Wave Theory came from Nikolai Dmyitriyevich Kondratieff (1892 – 1938) who was involved in the early Soviet economic planning processes. You can learn more about him and his ideas here:

http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

I’m going to have to read up on all this stuff. Until that’s done, I’m not going to venture a guess as where we might be in the cycle. I encourage anyone else who has some thoughts on the subject to leave a comment with them, though.

Categories
Trading Book Reviews

Book Review: The Power of Gold

[easyazon-link asin=”0471003786″]The Power of Gold[/easyazon-link]I just completed a book entitled [easyazon-link asin=”0471003786″]The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession[/easyazon-link]. It was lent to me by a colleague at work. He and I talk monetary policy on a fairly regular basis, so he thought I’d like to give this book a read.

In brief, this is a book which tracks the use of gold from a monetary perspective through most of human civilization. If you’re at all interested in history, then this book is definitely right up your alley. It takes a look at world events from a perspective that you won’t find in many other sources. Primarily that means focusing on how gold was (or was not) the main focal point of money and trade. I personally didn’t care for the author’s occasional forays into discussions of the decor of various palaces and whatnot, but they weren’t too distracting. Beyond that, it was a very well written book, and a pleasant read.

The really interesting stuff from a trading perspective, of course, is the latter part of the book where it gets to modern times. I personally found the whole discussion of the 20th century, which was probably the last third or more of the book, to be the most meaningful. The author really presents an excellent discussion of various perspectives and efforts related to different countries being on or off the gold standard and how that all played out in both domestic and global economies. Even the technicians out there could find this a really interesting book, if not really something which will contribute much to their trading strategies.

One of the things which has come up in modern political, social, and economic discussions is the idea of going back on the gold standard. There have been some very prominent proponents. If you want to get an idea of what that might look like, how that might play out in the global trade and economic modern environment,  you’ll definitely want to give [easyazon-link asin=”0471003786″]The Power of Gold[/easyazon-link] a read. It will really have you thinking about the complexity of it all, and the implications.