I told newsletter readers to watch out for falling yields

The theme of my weekly newsletter that went out to subscribers on Monday was the US interest rate market and the likelihood that the big run up in long-end rates was to be short-lived. It couldn’t have been more well-timed, as it turns out.

My intention for that particular newsletter edition wasn’t to provide a trading strategy, however. It was more about learning how to gauge market action and psychology. I like bringing real-world examples in to illustrate the educational focus. If you’re not already a reader, what are you waiting for? It’s free. Sign-up now!

By the way, you can see an archive of past editions here.


What didn’t you get that you wanted?

I’ve been thinking about doing some fun stuff with my newsletter subscribers by way of contests and giveaways. So here’s the question.

What was on your holiday wishlist that you didn’t receive?

It need not have been strictly trading-oriented. I’m just looking for ideas for prizes that would have a broad appeal. Your input is eagerly sought on this.

Please leave a comment below with your thoughts.

Thanks in advance.


All I want for Christmas….

Is a new logo for the website. 🙂

If you haven’t already done so, I’d love to get your vote on which of five options is the best choices. Just go to and rate the designs.

I’ll announce the winning choice next week.


Spreading the holiday cheer

Barry Ritholtz posted his holiday shopping list for traders last evening. There are some good items included and a few overlaps with stuff that’s on my own Trader’s Wish List.

Of course, probably the best gift any trader or investor could ask for is a profitable December’s trading. Alas, that’s not something anyone can give you – unless they are managing your money, and even then it’s not a sure thing. 🙂


Happy Birthday!

Birthday wishes all around!

OK. Originally I was only going to be wishing myself happy birthday here – as well as to anyone else with the same birthday who might be reading this. Oh, and I’ve got a young cousin with the same birthday as well (though 24 years behind!). As it turns out, though, this is also someone else’s day too.

Happy Birthday Big Ben!

The Fed Chief is celebrating his day of birth by chairing an FOMC meeting today. I don’t know how interesting that will be, but I’m sure he’s got other plans for afterwards.

For my part, I’m celebrating with my annual Birthday Bonanza. It’s something I do each year extra special for my newsletter list members. If you want in, sign-up for the newsletter today. This is a 24-hour thing only, and ends when the clock strikes midnight US Eastern time.


Something BIG is coming next week

Each year on my birthday I like to do something special for members of my mailing list. My birthday is coming up on Tuesday, so I’m gearing up for this year’s bonanza – and it’s going to be a game changer.

I won’t share the details here, as this is only something that will be open to those signed up for my newsletter (which is free, by the way). Here’s a bit of a hint, though.

I am preparing to totally shift the focus in trader development away from being so concentrated on tactics – indicators, systems, money management rules, etc. – to being much more strategic. Tactics are important, but only within the context of a well developed strategy.

I’ll leave it at that for now. The full measure of what I’m working on will go public at some point in 2012, but for now only my mailing list members will get the specifics.

If you’re not already signed-up for the newsletter – which provides valuable tips and insights into trading and the markets each week in its own right – sign-up now to make sure you get the birthday bonanza notifications.


Sign-up for the new newsletter

On Monday I sent out the first Essentials of Trading email newsletter to subscribers. If you aren’t already on that list, I encourage you to sign-up here. Here’s some of what I included in that initial mailing:

I’m a bit concerned with the action in the markets last week. The period around Thanksgiving is traditionally a positive one for stocks. I was talking with a colleague of mine on Monday. We were both of a mind to use the early weakness that day as an opportunity to get long the S&P 500 (or whatever), and by extension to look for Treasury yields to rise and the dollar to fall. There was a bit of a reversal after the original sell-off, but that ended up being it, and the pattern never improved throughout the rest of week, even on Friday.

I bring this up because when traditional seasonal patterns don’t work out it tells you there are things going on that are overwhelming them. That means we have to look deeper at what’s driving the markets when thinking in fundamental terms and to make sure we are reflecting these developments in our technical analysis.

All of this might not be such a big deal at other times of year, but in and around year-end there are a lot of seasonal patterns at work. Tax loss selling and Santa Claus rallies get talked about by the folks on CNBC and the like, but there are very strong patterns in the forex market this time of year as well (see Opportunities in Forex Calendar Trading Patterns).

Because of thin holiday volumes, trading this time of year always has the potential for quick, sharp moves. With the standard seasonal patterns looking like they may not hold (though I do suspect tax loss selling will still be prevalent), there is the distinct risk of greater than usual volatility. Make sure you’re factoring that into your risk and position-sizing decisions in the weeks to come.

If you would like to get more stuff like that on a weekly basis, I encourage you to sign-up today so you can get the next edition due out on Monday.