A recent blog post got me thinking about where volatility stands now compared to where it’s been. Here’s what I found for stocks and the dollar. Both of the charts below is a weekly which includes two measures for viewing volatility. Normalized Average True Range (N-ATR) measures average period high/low ranges (You can find articles I’ve written about N-ATR at Trade2Win and TASC). The Band Width Indicator (BWI) measures the distance between the Bollinger Bands, which is standard deviation of closing prices.
Here we see that while volatility has certainly fallen well off from where it was during the worst of the financial crisis, it hasn’t quite got back down to average levels from before then. It’s worth noting, though, that volatility heading into the start of the problems in 2007 was ridiculously low. I don’t expect to see it get back to those kinds of levels.
S&P 500 Index
Volatility in the stock market, however, has now fallen back to about the same levels it was at during the middle of the last decade. This is something very important to keep note of because N-ATR tends to be low turning sustained uptrends, but rise into market tops.